New CRC‑P Research Project Targets Major Gaps in Swell Forecasting for Australian Ports

A new national research partnership has launched a major initiative to improve the accuracy of ocean swell forecasts that underpin safe and efficient operations at Australia’s busiest ports. Led by OMC International, in collaboration with the University of Melbourne and Metocean Solutions/MetraWeather, the project—Addressing Problems with Operational Swell Forecast for Australian Ports—is funded through the Commonwealth’s Cooperative Research Centres Projects (CRC‑P) Program over the next 3 years. 

The project partners will tackle long‑standing issues in existing swell models and address  one of the most persistent challenges in operational wave forecasting: accurately predicting when ocean swells will arrive at the coast. Even small errors in swell arrival time can have significant consequences for port operations, vessel scheduling, pilotage, dredging activities, and maritime safety. Existing numerical wave models frequently struggle to capture the precise timing, magnitude, and transformation of swells as they propagate across ocean basins and interact with currents, tides, winds, and complex coastal bathymetry. 

By combining advanced ocean modelling, AI‑driven correction methods, and port‑scale downscaling, the project aims to deliver a substantial improvement in forecast accuracy and operational confidence, particularly for swell arrival timing at Australian ports. 

Expected outcomes include improved safety for vessels and port workers, reduced shipping delays, more efficient freight movement, and enhanced capability for operations affected by coastal wave conditions. The partners say the work will strengthen Australia’s maritime competitiveness while positioning the nation as a global leader in operational ocean forecasting.