Marine Heatwave predictions added to SwellMap
New Zealand’s go-to marine weather platform, SwellMap has officially integrated Marine Heatwave (MHW) predictions into its suite of ocean analytics—thanks to breakthrough research of The Moana Project, an MBIE funded research project which finished in 2024 (Figure 1).
Traditionally known for surf forecasts, tide charts, and wind data, SwellMap has broadened its horizon over the last few years, by embedding value added products into its interactive maps and automated forecasts. These include predicting hazardous rip current conditions, conditions hazardous for land based/rock fishing (which results on average almost five deaths per year, though increasing with nine deaths in 2023-2024) paddleboarding and kayaking, and now short-term marine heatwave projections (seven days). These marine heatwave projections highlight areas where sea surface temperatures exceed historical norms, offering critical insight for:
Fisheries management and aquaculture operations.
Surf lifesaving and tourism industries.
Climate resilience planning across coastal communities.
The addition is powered by oceanographic observation data collected by volunteer vessels around New Zealand (see https://amos.org.nz/) and modelling advances developed by MetOcean Solutions through The Moana Project, a multi-year initiative focused on unlocking the dynamics of New Zealand’s ocean system—from deep currents to regional warming trends.
Marine heatwaves, characterised by prolonged periods of unusually warm ocean temperatures, can severely impact biodiversity, coastal economies, and food systems. The Moana Project’s modelling framework uses satellite observations, observations collected through the Moana temperature sensors, and climate simulations to predict heatwave onset, duration, and severity with increasing accuracy.
By integrating this capability into SwellMap, users can now see real-time overlays showing projected thermal stress zones around New Zealand’s coastline, as well as forecasts of surface and subsurface ocean temperatures (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Marine Heat Waves around New Zealand, with data now available in SwellMap.
According to Moana Project scientists, the goal is not just academic. MetService Project Scientist, Dr Mireya Montano says, “We’re connecting ocean science with everyday decision-making, from when to harvest mussels to how coastal councils prepare for ecological shifts.”
This direct translation of marine research into a public-facing tool marks a rare synergy between academic modelling and practical digital services. SwellMap’s easy-to-read visual interface and mobile accessibility ensure that the insights aren’t locked behind technical barriers (Figure 2).
MetService Physical Oceanographer, Dr Carine de Godoi Rezende Costa adds, “Bridging the gap between data science and public access, SwellMap transforms complex marine research into actionable insight—accessible not only to industry experts but to every ocean user.”
Figure 2 Marine heat wave forecasts are now available around New Zealand. The majority of New Zealand currently under marine heat wave conditions, with abnormally warm water for this time of year.