Forecasts of wind and wave conditions are vital for effective and safe management of near- and offshore operations. MetOcean Solutions has developed a warning system based on ensemble forecasting, which allows us to provide warning of upcoming severe wind and wave conditions for up to 7-day horizons, thereby helping operators plan for safe and efficient management.
Accurate high-resolution forecasts of wave conditions at local scales can be done using nested or grid-refining models such as SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Such forecasts capture local wave transformation and dissipation, and can be done at a reasonable computational cost. However, at horizons beyond 2-3 days a forecast inevitably suffers from the onset of chaotic uncertainty that is a physical characteristic of the atmosphere-ocean system.
Ensemble forecasting is a method that quantifies this uncertainty in longer-range forecasts, providing probabilistic guidance for management decisions. MetOcean Solutions can customise a forecast warning system for any offshore or nearshore location based on the 7-day forecast wind speed, significant wave height (Hs) and maximum individual wave height (Hmax). The method used to estimate extreme Hmax accounts for the long-term uncertainty of the severity of the environment and the short-term uncertainty of the severity of the maximum wave of a given sea state, complying with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO standards).
We use such ensemble forecasts to provide the best possible site-specific warning to clients of upcoming severe conditions, using pre-set thresholds to define the level of alert.
Up to 60 wind and wave ensemble forecasts can be used to support a storm watch programme.
An example of email alert is illustrated below. All components of the email can be customised upon request.
MetOcean Solutions can set up a storm watch programme for any location. For more information, or to discuss your site, contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.